Windows

Are Online Applications A Passing Fad?

Posted by on Nov 9, 2006 | 10 Comments

In yesterday’s post, Chris published a note from a reader that stated, in effect, that he believes online applications will always be ancillary to desktop apps; that the current mania for sharing this and that will eventually calm down, and that will reduce the utility and probably the usage of online services such as Google Docs and Spreadsheets, Zoho, and the other “shareable” applications.

I disagree.

The primary advantage to working online is not sharing, but that it provides the ultimate in portability. By doing my composition for my several writing gigs in GD&S (which I’m doing right now), I have access to my work whether I’m at home on the PC, traveling with a laptop or at my “real” job. Everything is where I can find it, and any changes I make don’t have to be transferred or translated to anything. They’re right there when I access from the next machine.

Clearly I give away a modicum of privacy that way, but for my purposes what do I care? My stuff is published for the world to see anyway. As far as business is concerned, I don’t deal with anything that it would be disastrous to reveal. As far as sharing (considering that is one of the advantages of these new applications), I don’t. I suppose at some point I might find a reason to collaborate on something, but at present I find the centralization of my documents on what are arguably the safest public servers in the world, and their easy accessibility, quite enough reason to use online applications and storage almost exclusively.

The same goes for mail. Gmail is fast, even over dialup, acceptably secure for my purposes, has excellent spam filters, and is ultra-accessible. If I need spreadsheets, Google and Zoho (and others) have those too. All of the above applies.

About the only desktop apps I use regularly are Windows Live Writer for updating my blogs, and image editing software. Occasionally I’ll crank up Word or OpenOffice Writer if I need a fancy document with special formatting — maybe once a month. There are a few others I play with, but none that I can’t do without.

I foresee a day when we’ll have small, wireless terminals whose main purpose is merely a Web interface, and…
Oh, wait! We already have those. Anyway, our desktops will be smaller too, and serve the same purpose, with enough power to crunch video and other complex data, and to act as entertainment and control centers for other, dumber equipment. There will always be a need for desktop storage, but only if one chooses to use it. But online applications are here, and they’ll be with us for averrry long time.

That’s my story, and I’m sticking with it.
[tags]Web-based, Bill Webb, Bill’s Web, Google Docs and Spreadsheets, Zoho[/tags]

  • http://www.bishfish.co.nz tony bishop

    “Everyone takes their view of the world to be everybody’s view of the world”

    I wonder how many computer users use their computer outside the PC on their desk at work, or on the desk at home. The vast majority of people who use a computer at work never travel in their job. The vast majority of home PC users travel rarely, and rarely use a computer when they do for anything other than contacting home.

    I think people close to the tech world grossly over-state the value of a tech product’s features, and the value of those features to most PC users.

    As an example, much is made in the tech world of Firefox’s extensions feature – but the most downloaded extension Adblocker has by figures on FF’s site only 2,300,000 downloads, or around 1% of all FF downloads.

    Features are facts; benefits are what the features will do for you!

  • Bill Webb

    1. “Vast majority” is not statistically significant.

    2. I have three family members who use online apps as I do. How far away from “close to the tech world” does one need to get before your theory no longer applies? (For that matter, I’m a professional writer and consultant in a completely different field. I’m sort of tech savvy, but a long way from being close to the community.)

    3. The line reads, “I forsee a day….” Did I say everyone is doing it now?

  • http://wp3.lockergnome.com/nexus/lumpy/ lumpy

    Well said tony.
    The features that you can or cannot use matter. I think the collaborative/sharing apps will be around for good. If one uses them or not is another issue. I have and I have not. When I have no connection at home, my PocketPC or thumbdrive serve me much better than an Internet site. I also rarely collaberate but when I do my PocketPC and thumbdrive are about as usefull as my Commodore 64.
    It will be fun to see how many people actually do use web apps vs. desktop apps. I think part of it is what we are used to and, I suspect, most people have little need for collaberation.

  • Larry Cottingham

    Everything Old is New Again!! Back in the mainframe world, before many of you were born, IBM had a mainframe based product called PROFS which stood for Professional Office System. While PROFS certainly bore little resemblance to the functionality of current online apps, It’s most prominent claim to notoriety should stand as a warning to current online apps. enthusiasts. In 1987, the US became embroiled in the “Iran-Contra” scandal. During the course of congressional hearings, it was discovered that government officials, including Oliver North, used PROFS to write memos and send Email. Sadly for them, all of those incriminating memos and Emails, that they had faithfully deleted, were still available!!! Yes, those good government data center workers, had faithfully performed the nightly backups and all that data still existed.

    While flexibility and ease of use were key components to the popularity of PC’s, Ownership of Data may have been the most important aspect. When you use those online services, you give up the ownership of that data. Google admitted as much this week when they announced that they are considering “allowing you to take your data if you leave their service”.

    I suppose that if it is your desire to live your life in an on-line world, then your only worry is that Google does not exist to provide you with a free service. They exist to make a profit. Eventually you will pay for that service. It will come in the form of a monthly charge, or the mining of your data for profit by others.

  • Bill Webb

    1. That’s all fine with me Larry.

    2. I was born in 1944…how about you? ;)

  • http://www.bishfish.co.nz tony bishop

    “vast majority” is about as statisticly significant as your sample of one, yourself.

    I think as Larry noted, data ownership, more particularly security of data ownership, will become of growing importance. Whether businesses of all sizes will entrust the security of their data to one corporation is the key to significant growth of on-line software. This factor is especially true of businesses based outside the US, and US business with units based around the world.

    If you want an example of how difficult it is to move a product to significant market share, consider Gmail. Despite all the ‘noise’ in tech mags and web sites, as measured by Hitwise, perhaps one of the more respected Internet research companies, in Sept this year, Gmail accounted for 2% of email traffic. That market remains dominated by MySpace Mail (38%), Yahoo(35%), and MS Hotmail(18%).

    I agree that on-line software will probably have a place for a long time, but in my view in a small market segment, and perhaps restricted to a share of the self-employed, small business or home users.

    • Bill Webb

      ‘“vast majority” is about as statisticly significant as your sample of one, yourself.’

      Non sequiter. I referred to no one’s actions or opinions other than my own.

  • Bill Webb

    Oops: sequitur. I always do that!
    (Hyperbole; not statistically significant)

  • Bill Webb

    Sorry about this. I’m a bit rushed this AM…leaving for a long weekend.

    A couple of comments about about Gmail: I hear the above comparisons all the time. Gmail is still in beta, and Google has never pushed it with the full power of their “machine.” If/when they do, it will be a different story. Go here for some of the features they don’t mention at all: https://mail.google.com/mail/help/about_whatsnew.html

    Furthermore, historically one of the most difficult hat tricks on the Net is getting people to change email addresses. It’s almost like getting people to change their phone numbers. That, in itself, is one of the main reasons users report that they use webmail; it gives them independence from ISP’s as regards domains, just as the new number portability does with phone numbers.. The fact that a startup system has influenced so few to change is, thus, no big surprise…especially considering that Google doesn’t advertise.

    Outta here. Have a great weekend.
    BW

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