Are Online Applications A Passing Fad?

“Everyone takes their view of the world to be everybody’s view of the world”

I wonder how many computer users use their computer outside the PC on their desk at work, or on the desk at home. The vast majority of people who use a computer at work never travel in their job. The vast majority of home PC users travel rarely, and rarely use a computer when they do for anything other than contacting home.

I think people close to the tech world grossly over-state the value of a tech product’s features, and the value of those features to most PC users.

As an example, much is made in the tech world of Firefox’s extensions feature - but the most downloaded extension Adblocker has by figures on FF’s site only 2,300,000 downloads, or around 1% of all FF downloads.

Features are facts; benefits are what the features will do for you!

1. “Vast majority” is not statistically significant.

2. I have three family members who use online apps as I do. How far away from “close to the tech world” does one need to get before your theory no longer applies? (For that matter, I’m a professional writer and consultant in a completely different field. I’m sort of tech savvy, but a long way from being close to the community.)

3. The line reads, “I forsee a day….” Did I say everyone is doing it now?

Well said tony.
The features that you can or cannot use matter. I think the collaborative/sharing apps will be around for good. If one uses them or not is another issue. I have and I have not. When I have no connection at home, my PocketPC or thumbdrive serve me much better than an Internet site. I also rarely collaberate but when I do my PocketPC and thumbdrive are about as usefull as my Commodore 64.
It will be fun to see how many people actually do use web apps vs. desktop apps. I think part of it is what we are used to and, I suspect, most people have little need for collaberation.

Everything Old is New Again!! Back in the mainframe world, before many of you were born, IBM had a mainframe based product called PROFS which stood for Professional Office System. While PROFS certainly bore little resemblance to the functionality of current online apps, It’s most prominent claim to notoriety should stand as a warning to current online apps. enthusiasts. In 1987, the US became embroiled in the “Iran-Contra” scandal. During the course of congressional hearings, it was discovered that government officials, including Oliver North, used PROFS to write memos and send Email. Sadly for them, all of those incriminating memos and Emails, that they had faithfully deleted, were still available!!! Yes, those good government data center workers, had faithfully performed the nightly backups and all that data still existed.

While flexibility and ease of use were key components to the popularity of PC’s, Ownership of Data may have been the most important aspect. When you use those online services, you give up the ownership of that data. Google admitted as much this week when they announced that they are considering “allowing you to take your data if you leave their service”.

I suppose that if it is your desire to live your life in an on-line world, then your only worry is that Google does not exist to provide you with a free service. They exist to make a profit. Eventually you will pay for that service. It will come in the form of a monthly charge, or the mining of your data for profit by others.

1. That’s all fine with me Larry.

2. I was born in 1944…how about you?

“vast majority” is about as statisticly significant as your sample of one, yourself.

I think as Larry noted, data ownership, more particularly security of data ownership, will become of growing importance. Whether businesses of all sizes will entrust the security of their data to one corporation is the key to significant growth of on-line software. This factor is especially true of businesses based outside the US, and US business with units based around the world.

If you want an example of how difficult it is to move a product to significant market share, consider Gmail. Despite all the ‘noise’ in tech mags and web sites, as measured by Hitwise, perhaps one of the more respected Internet research companies, in Sept this year, Gmail accounted for 2% of email traffic. That market remains dominated by MySpace Mail (38%), Yahoo(35%), and MS Hotmail(18%).

I agree that on-line software will probably have a place for a long time, but in my view in a small market segment, and perhaps restricted to a share of the self-employed, small business or home users.

‘“vast majority” is about as statisticly significant as your sample of one, yourself.’

Non sequiter. I referred to no one’s actions or opinions other than my own.

Oops: sequitur. I always do that!
(Hyperbole; not statistically significant)

Sorry about this. I’m a bit rushed this AM…leaving for a long weekend.

A couple of comments about about Gmail: I hear the above comparisons all the time. Gmail is still in beta, and Google has never pushed it with the full power of their “machine.” If/when they do, it will be a different story. Go here for some of the features they don’t mention at all: https://mail.google.com/mail/help/about_whatsnew.html

Furthermore, historically one of the most difficult hat tricks on the Net is getting people to change email addresses. It’s almost like getting people to change their phone numbers. That, in itself, is one of the main reasons users report that they use webmail; it gives them independence from ISP’s as regards domains, just as the new number portability does with phone numbers.. The fact that a startup system has influenced so few to change is, thus, no big surprise…especially considering that Google doesn’t advertise.

Outta here. Have a great weekend.
BW

My Two Cents on Web Apps…

A few days ago Chris wrote a post about today’s fad of Web apps. Bill Webb followed the next day with this post. Bill’s post is populated with many good comments on the topic. I am one of the commentors. I thought it might be worth the…