We all know how to spot the early adopters. They have all the latest gadgets, have implemented new technologies before we know they exist. Sometimes, we want to be the ones to try out new software or hardware, to test if it works, to be a part of making it better.

But many of us who work on the web have learned the hard way that working with the beta release or being among the first to jump on the bandwagon isn’t always the way to go. You can end up jumping on the wrong trend, being exposed to a code vulnerability, or losing money needlessly by miscalculating when a little patience might pay off.

So what most of us who are immersed in technology strive to do is be what I think of as second-round early adopters. We don’t like to be the very first in line, but we try to also time our involvement so that we’re not the last adopters either.

If you don’t work fully on the web, it might be hard to figure out when to jump on a trend and when it’s getting late in the game to jump on the bandwagon. I can tell you a trick from early in my technology career that will help you figure out when you’re signing up late in the game.

My foolproof method is this: watch the government. One thing I learned from working on the help desk at a government agency, and earlier, working simultaneously with Compaq, Cisco, the Army National Guard and Boeing on a government technology contract, is that the government is often quite slow to adopt technology changes.

Some government blogs have posts that date back only as far as early 2007, well after the business world was informed that blogging was the thing to do.

And now, social media is apparently, an upcoming focus.

That should tell you that if you’re not using social media, you need to get cracking. As long as it takes a single decision to be approved by many layers of people in charge and then to have the appropriate paperwork filed, actual adoption time is often pretty late for government agencies.

When you first hear about the US government implementing something that seems hot and trendy to you, that’s a great moment to keep from being one of the me-toos who get in too late to see the best of the benefits — or shape the future of the technology.

How do you keep ahead of the late adaptation, but not risk being a trendsetter either? Start reading blogs, forums and online publications on technology on at least a weekly basis. Dedicate an hour to skimming headlines per week. After some time you’ll be weeding out the people who repeat other news, which will leave you with a handful of people who have good track records at spotting helpful business information and trends.

Once you get to trust them, start taking their advice, implementing a small test of their advice, and then rolling out bigger changes if the tests go well. That should keep you in the loop, and prevent you from being a slave to tech fashion as well. :)