Looking At Prognostications For The New Year? It’s Likely A Waste

I have been looking at the prognosticating done by all the big magazines, the news outlets, and the long time writers in the tech industry, and, for the most part, they are all just a bit crazy.

Not only do many of them contradict each other, many are simply making assumptions that have no basis in established fact or flight of fancy.

In the looking at the guide to the bleeding edge, Maximum PC, we see that on one page there is a list of things that are predicted to go away, called the “12 Technologies on the Brink of Disappearing”, but then the author only gets to six before he starts telling us why the second six will survive.

It is probably a good idea, as the first half dozen all a bit far fetched when saying they will disappear. Many will shrink, but not disappear. The idea that the number one item, pre-recorded physical media will go away completely is absolutely preposterous, made more so when combined with the number four item, hard drives, will also disappear.

Who hired these guys? Well, perhaps this is more of that stuff designed to make people angry when they read it.

No doubt the author of the piece has never used a flash based drive that suddenly decided to die, with no provocation and no possible resuscitation.

Of course, in the same day’s entries, we have another author telling us that the optical drive makers are preparing for a price war, for which one might surmise that it was a possible reprise of Custer’s last stand; but no, we are told that the war over lowest price may well continue to at least 2015.

The picture of an optical drive in the article shows a TOTL drive from Samsung, and also speaks of the low prices already found. How much lower could they go?

When a really fine DVD-RW drive can be had for under $30 in more places than you can shake the proverbial stick at, there is no chance that optical media will be leaving any time soon.

As to the rest of the dozen, peruse the article at your leisure, because I’d bet my last dollar they won’t be leaving the party any time soon.

Time for some of the writers to get a new Magic 8 ball, crystal ball, or Ouija board, because the one’s they are currently using are way off.

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