Windows 7 Flying Off Retailers Shelves? Perhaps Not.

To hear the story from Steve Ballmer, Microsoft is selling copies of Windows 7 faster than the copies can be pressed. The people are buying in droves, with adoption so high it beats all previous upgrade cycles.

After examining the previous upgrade cycles, that really is not hard to believe, as most Microsoft upgrade cycles don’t really get going until the first service pack. That is not an exaggeration or lie. That is how the interested should proceed. The other part of the upgrade cycle question is one that really answers itself, because in no other version of Windows has the beta been so widespread, so available. No other time have interested users been able to try, compare, and also important, check with their friends, on their experiences.

And, perhaps most important of all, at no other time has there been a wide availability of a beta following such a dud. People will cite Windows Me, but that doesn’t track, because Millennium Edition was released, and then Windows XP was released soon after, while at the same time, Windows 2000 was available to the serious user (those not running it as only a place to play games). In any case, Microsoft did not let 3 years of being embarrassed by the reputation of Windows Me go by with no answer, the way that Windows Vista was allowed to embarrass, annoy, and otherwise remain. (Personally, I feel that was a golden period in the Microsoft time line. At no other time were 4 versions of Windows widely available to the public. Windows 98 for the gamer, Windows Me for the upgrader that did not want to make the hardware change, Windows 2000 for the serious business user [solid as Windows NT was], and Windows XP for the users that were looking for changes, and were not afraid to strike out in a new direction. Because of the wishes of Microsoft, we will most likely never have that much choice again.)

The big media has a story about the massive numbers sold, but no one is quantifying the phrase massive numbers.

In the mean time, we have a story from one of the PC World columnists, concerning his inability to sell a copy of Windows 7 Home Premium, the version we are told is the most popular.

Though Windows 7 is building a reputation as a messiah that will revive the PC industry, when I found myself trying to peddle an extra copy of the new OS, I couldn’t give the damn thing away.

There have been stories about how Windows 7 is in high demand. According to one study, adoption of Windows 7 just 10 days after its launch is where Vista adoption was four months into its launch in ‘07. Microsoft is reporting that Windows 7 is doing well. Big shocker there.

but later the author states -

There’s lots of noise, but thankfully there are industry analysts to be the voice of reason. In a recent BusinessWeek story, Gartner analyst Mikako Kitagawa put it best: “People won’t buy new PCs for Windows 7. They’ll only buy them if they need them.”

Well, my own struggle to sell an extra copy of Windows 7 Home Premium upgrade version confirms that notion. It seems people don’t really want Windows 7, even at a rather large discount.

The author goes on to state that after much more advertising, and worrying about the sale, he is finally able to sell the unopened copy at the original price he paid, $50. This is pretty sad, considering the fact that no retailer is selling the same thing anywhere near that price. It does not say much for the alacrity of Windows sales at the retail level.

So, once again it becomes a case of who do you believe. I happen to believe that Windows 7 is much better than Vista, so my take is that what the press is saying should be so, but that only is because of my bias. In a similar fashion, I was more excited about Windows XP than I was about any version …ever. I had to think a moment – I was more excited, and more pleased, about Windows XP than any other Microsoft product ever. It did what I needed doing right at that time (it kept me from rebooting three to five times a day, and allowed me to use larger drives than Windows Me allowed, without a dynamic overlay), and it did it well. The fact that other stories were out about Windows XP being slow on the uptake did not bother me one bit.

It is clearly difficult to see where we are with this, but I will say I know that it is safe to say that many I know are anxious to switch, or already have, while some Windows XP users I know are settled in for the long haul to Windows 8. On the other hand, every Vista user I know has switched already, or is chomping at the bit to dump Vista ASAP.

(The entire story about the sale of the extra copy is quite entertaining, I recommend the full read.)

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