Which Microsoft OS Will Windows 7 Cannibalize More, XP, or Vista?

That is the question that Adrian Kingsley-Hughes is asking this day on ZDNet. Giving figures concerning the adoption of Windows 7 in the pre-release phase, he notes that its use has already eclipsed that of the iPhone. Why he threw that in is unknown, but what is known is why the use of Windows 7 is so high in pre-release.

It has nothing to do with how great Windows 7 might be. Think about the state of things at the moment, and what is different about this pre-release period versus any other.

Windows 7 has gotten such amazing coverage, and pre-adoption, because it, like no other Microsoft operating system, has been allowed to be sampled by the greater public. With the two official releases, Beta and Release Candidate 1, along with the many, perfectly timed ‘leaks’, the buzz about Windows 7 was kept at a level just below a din for all concerned. Because this was a first, it is no wonder that the downloads of the various revisions was huge.

Everyone who has any interest in their computer, above the level of appliance, wants to see what is happening, and how they might be affected. The people who have been using Vista have been the most curious, and not simply for the reasons of discontent. Those who are happy with Vista have been taking a look-see as well, because they don’t want to think that the sour taste, that Vista originally gave, has not ruined their perception of what may be a reason to switch, rather than stay with the fully patched operating system they have. After all, if they are happily using Vista, they already have the hardware requirements knocked, and want to see if Windows 7 offers anything other than sweeter eye-candy.

The users of XP, are looking more askance at Windows 7, both because it offers no in-place upgrade (as it really should have, no matter the difficulty level) and because the users that did the ‘downgrade’ to XP have that internal soundtrack playing The Who’s “Won’t Get Fooled Again” at almost earsplitting levels.

To answer the question posed by Mr. Kingsley-Hughes, the best I can put forth is, it depends.

If the economy does more than begin to come back by the beginning of next year, as some say, the chances of new hardware being bought en masse by large companies, and individual users, is possible, which would make the folks in Redmond gleeful at Christmas indeed.  This will be the scenario where Windows 7 eats more into the Windows XP marketshare, because of hardware upgrades.

On the other hand, if the economy doesn’t begin to come back in the near term, then those people, and businesses, who will need little or no upgrades to run Windows 7 (think video card only; think mainly Vista users) might purchase enough copies of Windows 7 to bring a wan smile to the folks in Redmond, knowing that there will be profits, just not the snowballing ones there might have been had the times not been so tough.

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