Microsoft Earnings Disappointment Is Good News for the Late Adopters

After reading all about the news of Microsoft’s quarterly earnings slump, I know now that those who decided, or were not able, to purchase the initial offerings of Windows 7 at a good price will not be left out in the cold. (If you read this column, you know I said during the two week semi-frenzy that there would be another discount purchase period, I was 97% certain then, and I’ll bet the farm on it now.)

Coupled with the fact that the RTM of Windows 7 has appeared on torrent sites already, and you have it nearly carved in stone. Yes, for those who don’t follow these things, several sites have what is purported to be the RTM code for Windows 7.  I believe that this is, again, a leak that was fully sanctioned by Microsoft. Why? To get further trial usage by the players who are a bit more ‘inertial’ and otherwise would stand well behind the early adopters. It is very curious that each time, along with the warning that the beta and RC keys don’t work with this code, a complete explanation of the re-arm feature, that debuted in Windows Vista, and allows a 120 day usage without problems, is given. This is functionally equivalent to Microsoft handing over the code for 120 day trials, without having to press any discs, or take the heat for early flaws discovered.

I also believe it is a way of trying to bolster the sales of Ultimate 7, as the early users, who will use the RTM code from a torrent, then buy a copy will want to save the trouble of the downgrade when buying a lower version, and being told that a simple serial number switch will not do the trick. The indolent users will simply pony up the extra dollars for a genuine Ultimate 7 serial number. Ka-ching, extra bucks in the Microsoft coffers. (Always catches a few is the operative phrase here)

I believe there will be a program to get the Windows 7 box in customers hands from October 22 to December 24 on the cheap. This will be attributed to Microsoft’s magnanimity at holiday time, and then stop. But then, auto magically the week that those RC copies start timing out, another very short deal will appear, with some lame slogan like ‘Save on Spring Cleaning with Microsoft’. You know the deal. Anything to get the customers in line.

Now I won’t bet the farm on the spring promotion, because it depends on many factors, such as number of PCs shipped with Windows 7 up to that time, the number of people buying the product up until Christmas, the national economy, and the whims of Monkeyboy. Too many factors to account for without the help of a crystal ball, but I’d say the chances are better than 50-50.

With the word that a full 60% of corporate America won’t be on the initial bandwagon, and high profile writers like Adrian Kinsley-Hughes asking questions about the gullibility of early adopters, I know that July is not the only month here in America where Santa Ballmer will be reducing the cost of Windows 7.

imagine this man, with a red suit, a red and white cap, now put a few million boxes of retail Windows 7 in a bag he carries around during the holidays – there, that’s the image we’re looking for

Yes, the frenzy is well underway; nVidia (trying hard to get the 40nm products into the channel), AMD (trying to keep its 40nm products in the channel, and get maximum flow in the pipe), Intel (about to drop two new platforms, i3 and i5), and Microsoft have all quietly nodded at each other, acknowledging the calendar of events, and the aim for perfect timings.

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