CES, Steve Ballmer, & Ed Bott

Over on ZDNet, Microsoft watcher, prognosticator, and apologist Ed Bott has, this morning, a piece concerning what Microsoft will not say about the upcoming release (whenever it might be) of Windows 7.

He makes five points, which he thinks are things that Mr. Ballmer will not speak of. While I agree with the points, I also believe there are a few more things he will never say, and as we move through the first five, the others will come to light.

1. “Some of you are going to hate our new OS, no matter what we do.”

Here Mr. Bott is exactly correct. Some people would complain about anything new, to the point that if these same people were asked, at each stage of development, what should change, and their advice was heeded, complaints would still come in a huge barrage. However, the underlying point is that Microsoft, and many other companies, use this to change things not needing change, simply to push an agenda that makes the customer purchase new components, in a cycle that need not be as large, or as difficult as it frequently is.

This leads to point #2, made by Mr. Bott -

2. “Good luck finding drivers for all your old XP-only hardware.”

Do you see how the first folds into the second? Hardware that is perfectly fine, needing no replacement due to any problem with reliability, must be replaced because in a classic example of complicit conspiracy, Microsoft and hardware manufacturers nod at each other, and suddenly new hardware is needed because, in some arcane moment of  lunacy, driver programmers suddenly forget how it was that drivers were ever produced for existing hardware. “No, we really can’t remember how we ever developed the driver for Item ABC revision 1, but we have just been working on item ABC revision 2, and our memory isn’t nearly as clouded, so here are the drivers for it, and they are for the newest operating system from Microsoft.”

Not that I have any delusions about changing this, in even a small way, I simply want it noted.

3. “We’re still at the mercy of our clueless OEM partners – and so are you.”

Is it not simply amazing how this stuff fits together? It’s as though there was a note passed around the entire computer industry, and everyone concerned got to see it. Each hardware manufacturer gets to point fingers at Microsoft, which stands tall, pointing right back in the other direction. Each blames the other for any problems, and you, the poor person who can’t program for yourself, must simply take it, hoping that somehow you will come upon an acceptable working combination.

The next point is less important, so it doesn’t need to be closely integrated with the first three. For those who aren’t in need of a new machine, for whatever reason, it can be ignored. More than that, few, other than those trying to justify their latest overreaching purchase, worry about it.

4. “It might be years before we have a killer application for Vista or Windows 7.”

It really doesn’t matter, because the pressure from the hardware companies, the press, the bloggers, and Microsoft all are forcing change, so concern about  the reason for change is pushed almost off the table. The less informed, unsure of the workings inside the box, are only sure that everyone tells them an upgrade is totally necessary, and inevitable (and not in the Hillary Clinton for President way, in the Seven of Nine from Star Trek ‘Resistance is futile” way).

5. “Our licensing terms are as hopelessly confusing as ever.”

Mr. Bott’s last point is simply an aside to points #2 and #3. In essence, it states that, if you know what is good for you, you will purchase a completely new machine. Doing so means that you have a warranty that forces these otherwise intractable companies to bend to the idea that, at least in the as delivered form, the computer bought will work correctly, not having problems with drivers, making any interface worries fade as simple usage takes precedent, and taking your mind totally away from the thoughts of why the whole upgrade was unnecessary. It also means that you are not forced to think about how much you paid for that operating system that everyone agrees, while winking to each other, is overpriced.

Microsoft hasn’t gotten around to announcing how many editions of Windows 7 it plans to produce or what their prices will be. But one thing is certain: the confusing, multi-layered Windows business model isn’t going to change.

Royalty OEMs (the big PC makers like HP, Dell, Sony, and Toshiba) have one price list and one set of terms. Small system builders have another set of rules. Retail copies are horrendously overpriced.

Enterprise customers have to navigate through a thicket of price lists and volume licensing programs that actually require their own certification programs. And even Microsoft sometimes contradicts itself completely on how licensing terms apply to some customers.

Don’t spend too much time on this, it will make your head explode. If not for the confusion in terminology, then the abiding feeling that you are helpless in this systematic reaming about to occur.

If, by some chance, you wish to watch Steve Ballmer pontificate and self-congratulate at CES, Mr. Bott has given links to the feed in his article.

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In politics stupidity is not a handicap.Napoleon