Opinion – Attack Iran, How’s $300 a Barrel Oil Sound
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One writer’s opinion, shown on Yahoo, originally on ‘The Nation’ makes the case that with the current trend of the right wing of our government, led by Mr. Bush, to consider attacking Iran has the consequence of pushing up oil prices.
You don’t have to be an economics major to figure that one out.
But then some other information not easily gotten, is given-
Last week the Middle East Policy Council held an interesting and important discussion of what to do about Iran. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to attend it, but the MEPC has helpfully posted the transcript of that event. Led by the astute Chas Freeman, a former American ambassador to Saudi Arabia, the discussion was a very thoughtful effort to analyze the consequences of an American and/or Israeli attack on Iran. If you have the time, read it.
An important aspect of the idea of war with Iran is how it would be viewed by the Arab Gulf states and Iraq. Freeman, who is well connected in the Arab Gulf, made this rather scary point, which I haven’t heard anywhere else:
Because logistics require cooperation from countries in the region, they cannot avoid a measure of complicity with a U.S. operation against Iran, and the word in the region is that Iran has already told Qatar, for example, that if there is such an attack, the Qatari regime is toast.
This is clearly bad, for the secular world, a war is a terrible thing, causing suffering for many not involved on the battlefield itself. For the Christian world, it is another sign of the end times – not as though this would be Armageddon, but Biblical scholars tell us that the Revelation of John puts the beginning of the final war in the middle-east – where it all started.
Qatar, of course, is where the U.S. Central Command has its local headquarters.
Jean-Francois Seznec, a professor at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University, goes on to suggest a point of possible conflict between Iran and Qatar involving huge gas fields. Qatar and Iran are two of the world’s largest powers in natural gas. Says Seznec:
The Iranians are very worried about the enormous development on the Qatar North Dome Field. You know, it’s the largest gas field in the world. Qataris are developing it like crazy right now. And the Iranians are upset by that because they own half of that field, and they feel that the Qataris are really stealing their gas at this point. And they’ve mentioned that, because they have not been able to develop that field for lack of money, mostly, and lack of technology from overseas.
Seznec suggests that oil would go to $300 a barrel if Iran is attacked, and gasoline to $10 a gallon here at home.
Concludes Freeman:
It’s fairly obvious that [military] strikes won’t solve the problem, will create additional problems, would lead to a wider threat against American and other interests, and would lead to a war with no obvious end. But aside from that, a military strike on Iran is a splendid idea. There is a chance in the next six months that we will find out just how splendid it is. For my part, I hope not.
Yes, hopefully, ‘W’ et al, champions of ‘justice’, deliverers of ‘freedom’ that they are, will not get any more ideas that will urge us into another needless, costly, and unwageable war. Yes, I said unwageable, because we have not got the manpower to wage another war, unless ‘W’ and Dick are ready to go over and lead a battalion of stalwart freedom fighters on their own (doubtlessly made up of friends from Haliburton.and other cronies) Barring that, the only answer would be nuclear attack, and though it might be over for the Iranians, several of their neighbors might get a tad riled, as their neighborhood would be tough to live in for a few thousand years.
The article doesn’t make the point that everyone knows, but is unwilling to acknowledge at the front of consciousness. The Iraq war is what started the crude going up in price, as much caused by the purveyors of oil as any speculators. It was, and is, perhaps the best revenge for our thoughtless attacks on a neighboring country of theirs. One that, while suffering under a dictator, with delusions of grandeur, was no worse off than today – and thousands of Iraqis would gladly attest to that if they could, but they’re dead.
All this, over some black goo in the ground.
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Technorati Tags: war - Iran - Biblical end times - oil - gas - war mongers
13 Comments
Gary
July 5th, 2008
at 7:51pm
Ok. 1) Shut down futures trading NOW!. Serves no point in economy except to enrich a few gamblers. 2) A Manhattan style project to build two or more refineries. Any tree huggers that object should be locked up in their own section at GITMO. They have a great deal to answer for what they have already done to this country. If we could build Liberty ships in three days (what we were doing at end of WWII) then a refinerie every six months should be no big deal. This isn’t rocket science. But reducing speed limits will serve no purpose whatsoever. Definitely shows a lack of imagination and will on the part of that particular senator. He should be laughed out-of-town. Let’s get to it folks. This country and our leaders have not been leading us anywhere. In that case I would suggest they get out of the way. Oh yeah, almost forgot. Oil company execs should get their own places in GITMO. I wonder how they manage to keep a straight face everytime they went and lied to Congress?
the oracle
July 5th, 2008
at 8:05pm
Gary, thanks for the comment, although I’m not sure it came to the right spot. Perhaps a glitch in WordPress.
George
July 5th, 2008
at 9:24pm
actually, I’m pretty sure that we don’t depend on iran for any of our oil. We get it from other places. Thats just what ive heard though
Gary
July 5th, 2008
at 9:29pm
Forgot one more point. Start drilling in Anwr, and off the coasts of California and the west side of Florida. We have more oil in this country yet to be tapped than any group of Middle Eastern countries. As they taught us in the Marines, don’t just stand there, do something.
the oracle
July 5th, 2008
at 11:10pm
George, but if Iran is no longer to send oil to the countries that it does now, the rest of the world will have to fight overthe remaining oil that is shipped from other countries. Same number of buyers, less oil = much higher prices
Thanks for the comment.
the oracle
July 5th, 2008
at 11:15pm
Gary, the problem is, even without the carbon dioxide concerns, if drilling started tomorrow, it would be a couple of years before the diference would be seen. And no drilling can take place tomorrow, since construction will take a couple o0f years.
So, short term, no help.
George
July 6th, 2008
at 3:16pm
oracle, your right about the prices going up, i didn’t think of that. However, I DO believe we need to start drilling now. we have tons, tons of oil in America in different places. off shore, alaska, rocky mountains… etc. I know for a fact that there is already some drilling in the US, because I work for a company that supplies mobile satellite internet, and a few oil miners in the US buy from us so that they can make voip calls from their work sites. Still, its not a mass thing, and I think drilling needs to become mass. To put it simply, we need oil
the oracle
July 6th, 2008
at 3:27pm
George, but if we drill, and extract, when the global warming makes much of the planet inhospitable, what do we do?
Here in Southern California, I can see how the weather is much hotter, earlier in the year, and stays hot until December. When I was growing up, we sometimes had ‘Indian Summer’ which was a heat wave in October - now October is still as hot as July no matter what.
Gary
July 6th, 2008
at 3:53pm
Hey Oracle. Love your positive can do attitude. You’re a perfect example of what’s happened to this country since WWII. Let’s sit around and whine about all the reasons we can’t do something. Get out of the way and let a man through.
the oracle
July 6th, 2008
at 5:17pm
Gary, so enlighten us on the things you’re doing lately to enhance the lives of people on the planet.
Sometimes thought is needed before actions.
If ‘W’ had thought about his actions before going to war, we wouldn’t be debating this right now, gas would still be in the $2 / gallon range, thousands of Iraqis would still be alive, and thousands of your fellow Amricans would be alive. Countless other soldiers would not be coming home in various states of completeness.
George
July 6th, 2008
at 10:09pm
You bring up an interesting point, oracle. In the end, it really all comes down to global warming. Now, in my opinion, people will not give up their cars because the earth is getting warmer. I for one, will not, I’m sorry if that sounds selfish, but there is no public transportation to the place where I work from around my home, so its just not practical for me to stop driving. However, If I was in the market for a new car I would try to find something more fuel effeciant than what i have now. still, 32 mpg highway isn’t too shabby!
What I think is this. The earth is heating up, we wont stop driving, although, we have been cutting back on it. Different kind of fuels and public transportation will help. however, I don’t think we should focus on preventing global warming, I think that we need to focus on how to live after it happens. If we can survive even when the earth heats up a ton, then… we survive!
the oracle
July 6th, 2008
at 10:37pm
George, if we don’t curb the warming, places that once were green become desert, other places once frozen tundra become places of powerful and devastating rainfall. It will happen that way. Also, if the sea level rises 32 feet world wide, think of all the places that become uninhabitable, unless you’re part fish. Tornadoes and hurricanes become worse, with us seeing them devastate places that were once never known to have them. Crops fail, indigenous animals die.
We may survive, but it won’t look like today - it will look more like the beginning of ‘Blade Runner’ - not a pleasant sight.
Gary
July 7th, 2008
at 8:42pm
Oracle. I’m in the school that knows for a fact that global warming is the biggest hoax ever perpetrated on the human race. I’m doing my dead level best to continue life as I’ve always known it. You really need to do some serious research. Start with the 400 scientists that believe as I do. They have the papers that I’ve read on the subject. That is if you can stop worrying about the polar bears long enough to get your eyes opened.