Bill Gates is gone. For most, new computers with Windows XP are gone. Things with Vista are not much better than they were a year and a half ago. So, what is happening?

The Microsoft apologists are all coming out of the woodwork – it’s their time, Microsoft is not doing so well, after all, it has only forced out 140 million copies of its latest bloatware – I mean operating system.

This morning, Lance Ulanoff, from PCMagazine, opines that those who want to have continued support for, and continued use of, XP, simply don’t don’t know what it is that the request implies.

In his best ‘the future is here, and time waits for no one’ manner, he speaks about the problems that will occur if Microsoft has to support 3 operating systems (XP, Vista, ‘7’.  He gives a few examples to support what he says, but the assertions all seem to miss the mark.

That dreadful, miserable, much-feared date—the day Microsoft stops selling Windows XP—is upon us. The Windows eXPerience comes to an end on Monday, June 30. Now, each and every one of us must turn our tearful gazes to a new vista—Windows Vista (in whatever flavor you choose), to be precise.

Speak for yourself, paleface. Many of us are fully prepared to use XP until there is a need for something better. With XP, many made the upgrade from Windows 98 or 98SE to XP, meaning that increased stability, larger hard drive capacities (without kludges), and memory capacity over 512 MB (again, without kludges) were all then possible. Vista offers no similar changes – unless one is moving to Vista 64bit – which should be available with every Vista license.

While sales of XP will end, extended support will continue for seven solid years. That’s right, Seven Years.

While many will not use XP for the full 7 years, it is nice to know it’s possible. I look hopefully to some new technology that will make a need for a newer OS – a piece of killer hardware that the manufacturer refuses to make XP drivers for.

Windows XP Home Edition, Media Center Edition, Professional Edition, Tablet PC Edition, and Professional x64 Edition (the 64-bit version) will be under Microsoft’s support umbrella until 2014. Even better, Microsoft acknowledges that some system builders may still sell Windows XP until 2009. That’s pretty remarkable considering that Microsoft may be trying to end-of-life Vista in a few years when Windows 7 rolls out. That means that Microsoft could be supporting three distinct families of the Windows operating system in 2011.

This actually sounds like bad news for everyone.

Pourquoi?

Think about the paradox here. In response to the chorus of voices on, as Microsoft put it, “our website, in e-mails, and through independent online petition drives,” Microsoft does the “right thing” by extending support for XP. Yet, at some point, consumers could face diminishing returns. I mean, how far can one software company stretch? I’m sure Microsoft could throw enough people and resources at the support demands, but at what cost? I foresee Microsoft skimping on development initiatives in other areas just so it can keep its world of Windows families happy.

Speaking of families, I recently watched a few episodes of The Sopranos on DVD. I’m deep into season six, where the New York Family (led by John “Johnny Sack” Sacramoni) is suddenly falling apart. At one point, Tony Soprano (head of the New Jersey Family) begs a New York Family member to get his house in order because it’s hurting all the families.

Love of the Sopranos notwithstanding, this is a silly argument – after mid-2009, support of XP will be of the paid variety – no one is getting anything for free, so why the static? Isn’t Microsoft in business to make money? Don’t they have page upon page of instructions accumulated that the first level tech support drones can merely read to the hapless, and helpless, XP user? How does making money, after assessing, and hopefully solving, 7 years of problems cost them that much? To put it simply, after seven years, tech support has certainly seen the lion’s share of problems it will have to deal with in the next seven. If new hardware comes into play, Microsoft simply defers to the maker of that hardware, and says it’s not their fault. (The company is very good at that.)

Microsoft will certainly have a similar mess on its hands, without the bloodshed, of course.

With a seven-year support run ahead of it, Windows XP will see countless updates and maybe even another Service Pack or two. Meanwhile, Vista gets its own regular dose of updates to add functionality and patch dangerous holes. Now add in Windows 7 to this mess. It will go through countless revs before launching in full in 2009, 2010 or 2011. Once it’s out in the marketplace, the real fun will begin, with patches for unexpected holes and countless other issues that accompany any new OS rollout. The teams supporting these platforms will be fighting for resources and probably never get what they need.

Once again, the company has a ‘book’ of tech support problems, with the way that they were solved – it is a simple matter to support something so fully researched.

With Gates gone and Ballmer likely to follow before or shortly after the XP support cycle ends, there’ll be no godfather in place to make peace. And by peace, I mean someone gets whacked—like Windows XP long before 2014. Vista, too, could see its horizons shortened if Microsoft is smart.

Microsoft does its level best on its Windows XP page to discourage Windows XP nostalgia, touting Vista’s tremendous hardware support and compatibility. (It also notes that Vista has sold 140 million copies.) Apparently, 71 percent of Vista users like it better than their last operating system. What was that? DOS?

No matter what Microsoft does, though, its customers are stuck in one of two places: the past (with XP and even older operating systems) and the future (Windows 7). The present doesn’t interest them much. Microsoft would do well to accept that and set the wheels in motion so that Windows 7 will truly be its most successful operating system launch ever. In order for Windows 7 to have a fighting chance, Microsoft will need a singularity of focus. Having three live platforms at once won’t cut it.

Sticking with what works, and not moving to something that offers no substantial benefits, does not make one a Luddite. If Microsoft is so hot to get Windows Vista adopted, it should get to work on 64bit versions of its programs, and offer incentives to partners to do the same, so that a mass exodus from XP to 64bit Vista or ‘7’ takes place.

I don’t blame Microsoft. The company was simply responding to public outcry. And XP lovers got what they wanted—a very long goodbye. But do these people really know what they’re getting? I doubt it.

Who else should we blame? George Bush already has enough on his plate.

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Quote of the day:

I love quotations because it is a joy to find thoughts one might have, beautifully expressed with much authority by someone recognized wiser than oneself. - Marlene Dietrich

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