Unfortunately, this is the time of year when very little innovation happens, as most people are in either a tryptophan-induced stupor between Thanksgiving and Christmas, or are in a controlled frenzy, dividing time between worrying that they will get the right gifts from others, and feverishly looking for the things that those close by, tend to want.

Several websites offer up their own visions of the future of computing, most making attempts to explain what those who make One Redmond Way their daily workspace will do in the next 12 months or so.

I will offer up my insights at this point, so that next year at this time we can compare the results of what has happened in the intervening time and how good my prognostications are. ( I will avoid aping the results of anyone I’ve read, lest you say that is what I’m doing.)

First, the FUD will continue. No one says this, but in fact, the FUD is welded into the fabric of the company…it cannot be separated out.

Next, Windows 7 will not be shown anywhere, as it won’t be close to completion, and Microsoft will still be fretting over how much of the public is STILL using Windows XP and eschewing the travails of Vista adoption. The talking heads will be saying that Service Pack  2 will be the turning point this time, as it will finally be what Microsoft intended to release two years prior.

Next, Silverlight will still be around, but it will be only because Microsoft is too stubborn to get on with other things, and pride also keeps anyone on the edge of things (the manufacturer-customer interface) from admitting how silly an undertaking it was in the first place.

Last, Mr. Ballmer will be kept on large doses of medication, and will generally move toward looking more at ease with the public, if only slightly glassy-eyed and vacant.

The new face of Microsoft, and Mr. Ballmer.

Remember, inertia is a magical thing. The more mass a thing has, the more inertia will force things down the path undertaken. Microsoft will continue down its current path, and only in a couple of years will the behemoth seem to wake up to the disasters happening all around it.

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