Americans are an optimistic lot. I suppose that’s a result of your history and your having inherited a continent blessed. I started this blog because I was concerned that US citizens had a very optimistic view of the future whereas I see serious economic issues emerging. I havent wanted to post until there was clear […]
It was bearish early, but the markets haven’t seen much headway for a while. The final nail in the coffin for a bull market is merger and acquisition activity. The creation of credit and the hedging of risk does not represent a new paradigm, it represents a massive generational top in US stocks. Going forward, […]
We try and tell you the truth in Market Mad. The fact is that the markets are Mad and the US market in particular is way overbought and overvalued. The stock market has had a great run over the last few months, but as the holiday season begins analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end […]
Citi Issue Warning on Stocks
Analysts at leading US investment bank Citigroup have issued a dramatic warning to clients to be wary about the current state of the stockmarket.
Authored by analysts Adrian Blundell Wignall and Alison Tarditi, it warns that there are “similarities with the 1986-87″ period leading up to the last big stockmarket crash.
Blundell-Wignall is […]
The European think tank Europe2020 express the view that activity in the bond and share market was driven not my fundamentals but by electoral politics. A good example of what they see as political intervention was the miracle revision of the employment figures which saw the publication of a very bad figure for job creation […]
Hacking Democracy is on Google Video. On the eve of the election it might be worth remembering that the price of democracy is always eternal vigilance.
“This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence — economic, political, even spiritual — is felt in every city, every State house, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to […]
RealtyTrac (http://www.realtytrac.com/), the online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its August 2006 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows 113,300 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure during the month, a 22 percent increase from the previous month and an increase of nearly 50 percent from August 2005. The report shows a national foreclosure rate […]
Well, I have mixed feelings about this post, as an Australian, and an observer of US markets I know your political culture, well, its proud, so I worry how readers might react to this one.
This is what’s been bothering me, lots of money has been buying stocks at a time when they are not only priced to perfection but are […]
Market Climate
As of last week, stocks were characterised by unfavorable valuations and moderately favorable market action. Short-term, the market remains overvalued, overbought and overbullish, a combination that has historically made stocks vulnerable to negative short-term returns even when market action has been favorable.
Adding to the general impression of an overextended stock market, we note that corporate […]
Some reasons why this is not a new ‘bull market”. Although it may be bull of a rarer kind. In no particular order.
1) Absolutely record person debt.
2) A negative savings rate for US consumers for the past two years, something only seen last in the Great Depression.
3) A record trade deficit of more than […]
While the DOW has managed to crawl to a new high in nominal terms, the S&P 500 remains well below its record high as does the Nasdaq. If the DOW was a ordinary “market cap” weighted index it would sit at about 80% of its previous high. If we were to measure the index’s and […]
My name is Kevin and I’ve spent the last six years working out whats going on with the US stockmarket. I’m not selling you anything so I’m in the unique position of being able to tell you the truth, as best I know it. No deliberate deception anyway. This is an incredible time to be following the […]
