We try and tell you the truth in Market Mad. The fact is that the markets are Mad and the US market in particular is way overbought and overvalued. The stock market has had a great run over the last few months, but as the holiday season begins analysts are worrying that the traditional year-end rally on Wall Street may have already come and nearly gone. At Market Mad we agree. Mary Ann Bartels, technical research analyst at Merrill Lynch, wondered in a note to investors whether the tendency for stocks to climb in the last couple of months of the year had been rescheduled this year for September and October. We think yes she wrote. She also acknowleged feeling torn between what her charts have told her and what the calendar and history have led her to expect.  Market indicators suggest a 8% to 10% decline is the more likely scenario over the coming weeks. What is surprising is that these readings are occurring at this time of year when most years see a bullish year-end rally. 

  Last week trading volume had shrunk, which often precedes a price decline. Several sentiment indicators, including opinion surveys of investment advisers and measures of market volatility, show the sort of complacency that typically occurs near market tops.