On May 17, I had the opportunity to hear Glen Hiemstra, founder of futurist.com, speak at a local Portland Business Journal Power Breakfast. Hiemstra has built his reptuation over the past two decades by helping global organizations develop 25 year business strategies.  For those of you that weren’t able to attend the enlightening discussion, here are a few highlights:

Ride the spending wave, while it lasts.

Research has shown that consumers tend to spend the most money of their lives between the ages of 42 and 52.  This is primarily due to the growth of the family (larger house, growing children, tuition, etc.).  After 2010, however the Boomers will be retired and Generation X will not be able to continue the same level of spending due to their smaller population.  The good news is that Generation Y will save the day a decade or so later, as they are a larger population than the Boomers and will have greater spending power.

Booming Markets

In the next 3 years, nearly 25 percent of the population will be over 65.  While the average balance of an IRA savings account is $16,000 for a retiree, there is some good news.  A large population of Boomers have saved sufficiently and are creating new markets as they age.  Those markets include: travel, financial services, pharmaceuticals, healthcare and discount retailers.  While some of these markets are fairly logical, discount retailers and adventure travel took me by surprise.  Sounds like Wal-Mart travel is in my future.

Hot Potatoes

Everyone in the audience wanted to know what major issues will be shaping our future.  Hiemstra outlined the following: global warming, decline of cheap and easy energy, the green movement and higher education.  While global warming, energy and the green movement are already on the radar of most Americans, the issue of Higher education was intriguing, if not frightening.  China, India and other countries have invested tremendous amounts of time and resources into higher education, while the US has lagged behind.  If we don’t invest immediately in our future, we will lose our edge and status as a leading innovator.

In a related note, Oregon’s hot market sectors include nanotechnology and sustainability, although Hiemstra argued that Oregon isn’t unique in these areas, but has an opportunity to further distance ourselves from also-ran cities nationwide.  One aspect of the energy crisis that employers should be prepared to address is the need for workers to telecommute from home, due to high transportation costs in the future.  Hiemstra estimated that 20% of employees will work from home .
Plan Ahead
If you are as intrigued by Hiemstra’s predictions, you may want to start planning today.  He suggests dealing with change in three stages: act immediately in areas that have a proven return.  Carefully monitor trends in the near-term to prepare for change and learn about future opportunities to consider in the long-term.  For longer term strategic planning, Hiemstra suggests brainstorm sessions to identify key issues and opportunities, then making key decisions based on the overall direction and following up with shorter-term strategic planning sessions to create actionable next steps.  My first step is going to involve reading his blog on a regular basis.

[tags]Glen Hiemstra, futurist, portland business journal[/tags]