Hurricane Ike Worries me already…
A couple things I have seen this morning are pretty worrisome about Hurricane Ike. Although it is labeled as just a category 2 storm and not due to make full landfall until tomorrow morning, it looks like it could have a huge impact…
First comes this warning from the National Weather Service: “Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one- or two-story homes will face certain death”. I guess you can’t be any more clear that that.
The Storm Surge is already happening in Galveston and you can see it in this WeatherBug Camera that is located at the Moody Garden’s resort.
You can see the latest images from this Camara by clicking this link here….or view an animation of this past day by clicking here.
Below is the latest update from WeatherBug Meteorologist Joe Bartosik:
Storm Surge Already Causing Flooding Along Northwest Gulf Coast
Visible satellite imagery this morning has shown hints of an eye trying to form with Ike. Water Vapor imagery still indicates the presence of dry air and restricted outflow on the northwest side of the hurricane. Ike still has about 14 to 18 hours over water to intensify, but whether it comes inland as a strong Category 2, or a low-end Category 3, the affects from the storm surge itself will far outweigh the winds.
I’m becoming extremely concerned by what I’m seeing on our own WeatherBug cameras, tidal gauges, and news clips: storm surge flooding placing communities well underwater (at least 4 to 6 feet) from Cameron, Louisiana to Galveston, Texas and the hurricane hasn’t even arrived yet! At this point, and with forecasts of a 20 to 25 foot surge, I don’t think it would be unrealistic or overly dramatic to expect extreme, if not catastrophic, storm surge damage similar to that which occurred in Katrina and Rita.
Already tropical storm force wind gusts are spreading along much of the southern half of Louisiana, and are now moving along the upper Texas coast as far south as Matagorda, according to WeatherBug Streamer. Hurricane force wind speeds and gusts may begin to approach the coast around dinner time this evening, and will continue to increase through the overnight hours. A Tornado Watch is in effect for central and southeast Louisiana until 1 p.m. central time. I would expect this to be reissued and even expanded farther west this afternoon.
Morning computer model guidance has shifted slightly south and west of the current NHC track. Should this verify, then the center would cross to the southwest of Galveston Bay, sending the tremendous surge through the Bay toward the east and southeast sides of Houston, and extending east along the coast between 100 – 150 miles, generally Galveston to just west of Morgan City, Louisiana.
This would also mean 100 mph winds would have a greater chance of moving into the downtown Houston area. High rise buildings would be susceptible to gusts between 120 to possibly 130 mph, which would knock out windows. Power outages would also occur over a largely populated area, especially since hurricane force wind speeds extend 120 miles away from the center, with tropical storm winds out to 275 miles.
After landfall there still remains significant concern regarding flooding. With the size of Ike, the rainfall threat will be broad and reach from central Louisiana to across much of eastern Texas. Forecast trends for Ike after it comes inland continue to turn Ike north and northeastward toward a frontal boundary pushing across the Plains and Midwest. This will keep rainfall amounts from pushing above the one foot mark which normally would be the concern for a storm of this type.
That said, having Ike interact with the front, as well as the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Lowell, will broaden the area of significant rainfall: generally across the southern Plains and over into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys. Flooding over a large area is a real concern in this scenario. Flood watches have been issued over a large part of the Plains, Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. These will likely be expanded farther across the Mississippi and Ohio valleys later this weekend.
At 10 a.m. CDT, Ike remains on a west-northwest heading at about 12 mph. It is about 295 miles east of Corpus Christi and about 195 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas.
The next Technical Discussion for Hurricane Ike will be around 4 p.m. CDT. For complete WeatherBug coverage of Ike, please refer to: http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane-Ike-2008.html
