Hurricane Ike Texas bound. Corpus Christi and Houston are in the path

I have been tracking Hurrucane Ike for quite a while now. It has gone from Category 4 to Category 1 and now back to Cat 2. Evacutation advisories are posted for just north of Corpus Christi all the way up to Houston. It is expected to be a strong Category 3 when it makes landfall early Saturday morning.

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Here is what it looks like on WeatherBug Streamer RT with the latest tracks and warnings:

Here is the latest from WeatherBug Meteorologist Jule Gaddy:

Ike Now a Category 2 Storm. Hurricane Watches Posted and a Major Gulf Hurricane Likely

Ike’s minimum central pressure continues to drop, and was estimated at 958mb, or 28.29 inches of mercury. Within the past 20 minutes, a hurricane recon aircraft found an estimated pressure to be down to 951 mb. On satellite, the signs of continued strengthening are evident. Deep convection is firing around the center, and the beginnings of an eye appear to be underway. Ike’s broad outflow continues to have a symmetrical, spiral appearance. Ike is nearly directly over the deepest pool of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, so it is quite possible that Ike will become a Category 3 storm later this evening.

Tropical Storm Warnings have gone out for the Louisiana coast, with Hurricane Watches for Texas down to Port Mansfield. The exclusion of far southern Texas (Brownsville) is a bold move by NHC, indicating high confidence that the winds around Ike will not exceed Tropical Storm force towards the Mexican border.

Ike is very large in size, with Tropical Storm force winds now extending up to 205 miles and hurricane force winds up to 90 miles. The northern extent of Ike has spread into Georgia and southern Alabama, where bands of thunderstorms are zipping northwest towards a stalling cold front boundary the stretches across the Southeast U.S. A few of the thunderstorms have had wind gusts above 40 mph.

Ike is at 24.5N, 86.1W, moving northwest at 8 mph. Ike is expected to continue moving west to northwest through Friday, when a deep trough over the western U.S. will nudge Ike more to the northwest. Forecast models have varied over how far north this turn will take Ike. The consensus has moved north since yesterday, with Corpus Christi in the crosshairs for landfall, which is anticipated to occur early Saturday.

Oil and gas refineries throughout the central and western Gulf are likely to experience at least Tropical Storm force winds, with the core hurricane winds staying south of the dense network near Louisiana. With easterly winds on the northern side of the storm, the surge will be significant, possibly up to 15 feet above normal tide when factoring in the approaching the full moon.

The intensity of Ike will likely remain Category 3 starting no later than tomorrow through landfall on the Gulf Coast. It is possible that Ike might have low-end Category 4 winds (131-135 mph) for a brief period prior to landfall. Once inland, Ike’s secondary impact will be torrential rains and isolated tornadoes.

The next complete technical discussion will be issued tomorrow around 5 a.m. EDT.

For complete WeatherBug coverage of Ike, please refer to: http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane-Ike-2008.html

Julie Gaddy
Senior Meteorologist
WeatherBug, Meteorological Operations