Ike heading towards Brownsville/Corpus Christi, TX

It looks llike New Orleans can definitely breath a sigh of relief as Ike continues a path towards the Texas coast.

Here is a screen capture showing the track of the center of the storm from our new product called WeatherBug Streamer RT.

Below is the latest Technical Discussion from our Chief Meteorologist Mark Hoekzema:

<a href="http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane.html?zcode=z6286"><img src="http://hurricaneimg.weatherbug.com/ike_latest_th.gif"></a>

Ike continuing on a general westward track - models continue to trend toward faster and further south landfall on the South Texas Gulf Coast.

Important developments have occurred regarding the current motion of Ike and the tropical model forecasts for the path and speed of the storm. Ike has continued to move on a generally more westward track overnight and this has been well south of forecasts made just 24 hours ago. This, and the fact that expected developments of the upper level pattern over the U.S. have forecasts trending faster and southward.

Although this further south track has kept Ike over the coastal waters south of Cuba, it has done little to allow for strengthening until just this morning. Overall, this track has allowed Ike to retain its well organized structure which will mean that once it can get clear of the land influences it should be able to strengthen quickly.

The wind field and circulation of Ike continues to be very large. This will play a role in further strengthening and would also be important as Ike approaches landfall in how far northward tropical watches and warnings might be issued. It is expected that the wind field structure will retain its size as Ike tracks through the Gulf.

Models have continued to trend with forecast tracks that are further south than previous runs. This is because there is strong consensus among models that a stronger than previously expected blocking ridge of high pressure will develop over the southeastern U.S. This also means that the westerly flow around the high pressure will keep Ike moving along – trending faster than previous forecasts.

The last few forecasts by NHC have been trending south but NHC forecasters have also leaned further north than what many of the models have indicated. A significant number of the forecast models actually track Ike into Northeast Mexico. These forecasts are generally made to acknowledge the large amount of error outside of three days and to not allow areas up the Texas Coast to feel they are clear of danger.

Either way, these trends are significant in that the risk to Ike affecting a major metro area, outside extreme south Texas continues to diminish. Also the threat to the gas and oil fields of the northern Gulf is diminishing from run to run of models, too.

The next Technical Discussion for Hurricane Ike will be at 5pm. For complete WeatherBug coverage of Ike, please refer to: http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane-Ike-2008.html

Mark Hoekzema, WeatherBug Chief Meteorologist