New Orleans safe from Ike?

The latest model run of the forecast is showing that Ike is most likely to hit Texas than Louisiana or anywhere close to New Orleans. There is still ONE model that has it turning more to the north, but most are trending towards Texas. So, everyone still keep an eye out. If it keeps on its current path, landfall will be this coming Saturday.

Below is the latest Technical Discussion from WeatherBug Meteorologist Julie Gaddy.

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Ike Following Cuba’s Southern Border

Satellite shows Ike has retained a symmetrical, circular shape. Ike’s influence is being felt over the southern tip of Florida, where bands of thunderstorms have generated 40 mph wind gusts.

Ike is now spinning just off of the southern coast of Cuba. The center of Ike is about 45 miles southeast of Cienfuegos, and about 210 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba.

At 5 p.m., Ike was centered at 21.4N, 79.7W. Ike’s pressure has risen to 965 mb, or 28.50 inches of mercury. This is 13mb higher than the pressure at 5 a.m. Ike has sustained winds of 80 mph, making Ike a Category 1 hurricane. Ike is moving west at 14 mph.

Ike will likely clip the Isle of Youth and western tip of Cuba on Tuesday as it heads into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. While the friction of the nearby land will limit Ike’s ability to strengthen, it might be able to regain Category 2 status before the second Cuban landfall.

Deep warm water is available in this region of the Gulf, so rapid strengthening is very likely with Ike on Wednesday. Expect Ike to jog a little north along the warm pool of water for a bit, taking it north of the Yucatan. A more westerly track is expected to resume for the rest of the week, with Ike likely a Category 3 storm.

Models continue to disagree on where the forecast landfall will be. Most have Ike hitting Texas rather than Louisiana. The various members of the GFS ensemble have the biggest spread, with one outlier as far east as Panama City, Fla. Most models appear to be zeroing in on a landfall somewhere between Houston and Corpus Christi, Texas. A consensus towards a Saturday landfall is taking shape.

The next complete technical discussion will be issued tomorrow around 5 a.m. EDT.

For complete WeatherBug coverage of Ike, please refer to: http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane-Ike-2008.html

Julie Gaddy
Senior Meteorologist
WeatherBug, Meteorological Operations