Hurricane Ike moving towards Gulf Coast
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The latest forecast track of Ike has it moving into the Gulf with the possibility of impacting the same area that was impacted by Gustav. I am sure all eyes will be on Ike this week as we all hope that the people of New Orleans are not impacted again.
We have setup a discussion group on Chris Pirillo’s Geeks site. Discuss Hurricane Ike in the “Weather Geeks” group.
Here is the latest update from WeatherBug Meteorologist Chad Merrill.
Category 4 Ike Heading for Southeastern Bahamas; Still Looks Like A Gulf Coast Threat Next Week
The latest infrared satellite loop shows a very well defined storm system moving west towards the Bahamas. The eye has been clearly visible on infrared satellite imagery overnight. The eye, incidentally, moved directly over the Turks Islands over the past several hours. Ike has lost some of its deep convection, most of it is now on the south side of the storm. The system is maintaining an excellent outflow pattern.
A look at the water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped around the front side of the storm, but very little wind shear is evident, which will help Ike maintain its current intensity.
Ike has another 24 hours before the ridge axis shifts eastward. This will keep Ike on a westward track through Monday. Ike will begin to move northwest into Cuba.
The forecast models this morning have stopped shifting Ike’s forecast path southward. The models are in general consensus that Ike will move over Cuba in the next 24 to 48 hours, and then into the Gulf of Mexico. As Ike emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, it will be take a northwesterly track and have access to plenty of warm water to strengthen. The models are agreeing that Ike will be in the central Gulf of Mexico in three to four days.
Most of the forecast tracks after this time seem to be bringing Ike closer to the Louisiana or Texas coast. There is less spread this morning with respect to what part of the Gulf coast Ike may target after it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. Only one forecast model shifts Ike more north than west towards the Florida panhandle.
Of course, the length of time and amount of land area Ike covers in Cuba will dictate how strong the storm will be once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. If Ike travels west to east across Cuba, it will likely be a weaker storm once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. If the storm spends less time over land and then gets into the warm waters sooner, Ike will be a stronger storm. In any regards, however, Ike will have plenty of time to intensify between exiting Cuba and entering the Gulf of Mexico and any potential landfall along the Gulf Coast.
In any respect, Ike will be monitored carefully over the next several days as it has the potential to be a significant threat to the Gulf Coast.
At 5 a.m., Ike was located at 21.1N, 72.2W or 65 miles east of Great Inagua Island. Central pressure was measured at 948mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 135 mph with higher gusts.
The next complete technical discussion will be issued around 5 p.m. EDT.
For complete WeatherBug coverage of Ike, please refer to: http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane-Ike-2008.html
Chad Merrill, WeatherBug Meteorologist
