WeatherBug Ike Technical Discussion: 9/5 6pm
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Ike Takes Aim at the southern Bahamas
Major Hurricane Ike continues to look impressive on satellite. Shear on the north side of Ike due to Hanna’s large circulation has waned. The latest satellite imagery indicates that a freshly well-defined eye is beginning to take shape. Ike is expected to get stronger over the next 12 hours, and might get back to Category 4 strength (131-155 mph) sometime tomorrow.
As of 5 p.m., Ike was centered at 22.9N, 64.1W, and was headed west-southwest at 15 mph. Sustained winds were 115 mph, making Ike a low-end Category 3 hurricane (111-130 mph). Central pressure has risen to 958 mb, or 28.29 inches.
Ike is expected to hit the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southern Bahamas very late Saturday or early Sunday morning. Ike at this point is forecast to be a strong Category 3 hurricane. There remains a good deal of uncertainty in Ike’s track forecast. The consensus among the models is that Ike will go mainly westward toward Florida. Ike is then expected to curl slightly northward towards the southern tip of Florida. A few models suggest Ike’s turn will occur sooner over the Bahamas. Models agree that Ike will be either a strong Category 3 to nearly Category 4 storm as it heads for the Florida Straits on Monday.
A landfall over southern Florida would lead to a secondary landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast probably no earlier than Wednesday. While Ike would weaken while traversing the Florida Peninsula, the warm Gulf waters could fuel it back up to Category 4 strength. In many ways, Ike’s history and forecast track is reminiscent of Hurricane Frances (2004), which caused $12 billion in damage to the U.S.
The next complete technical discussion will be sent tomorrow around 5 a.m. EDT. For complete WeatherBug coverage of Ike, please refer to:
http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane-Ike-2008.html
