WeatherBug Ike Technical Discussion: 9/5 5:45AM
- 0
- Add a Comment
Ike Continues to Slowly Weaken; Forecast To Intensify This Weekend
Ike continues to exhibit beautiful symmetry, a well-established outflow, but the eye is not as well-defined this morning on satellite imagery and cloud tops have warmed somewhat. The size of the eye has decreased some today, which is reflected in the decrease in maximum wind speeds to 125 mph. Keep in mind that the pressure and wind speeds are estimated based on the infrared satellite data.
Water vapor imagery continues to show a moderate amount of dry air that Ike will encounter over the next 12 hours, so continued weakening is possible. Ike will also encounter some shear from the large outflow from Hanna.
Surface high pressure is building to the northwest, in the wake of Hanna and with a mid-level ridge north of Ike, the storm will be steered more to the west-southwest, closer to the Turks and Caicos, as well as the southern Bahamas early Sunday. Since Hanna will be well clear of the region, Ike will likely start to pick up steam and approach Category 4 strength on Sunday.
After Sunday morning, computer models agree that Ike will begin to turn back toward the west-northwest, or even northwest on the backside of the surface high to the north. How quickly this turn takes place will hold the key as to who then gets affected down the road into early next week. A majority of the models take Ike towards southern Florida on Tuesday of next week. Intensity at this point would probably be strong Category 3, if not Category 4. One model forecast the potential for re-emergence into the Gulf of Mexico, meaning a secondary landfall on Thursday or even Friday while another one takes the storm over Cuba and then farther south close to the Yucatan Peninsula. Either way, the Southeast should brace itself for a major hurricane no later than Wednesday.
At 5 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Ike was centered about 460 miles north of the Leeward Islands at 23.7N, 61.0W. Movement was toward the west at 15 mph, and the estimated minimum central pressure is still at 945 mb, or 27.91 inches.
The next complete technical discussion will be issued tomorrow at around 11 a.m. EDT.
