Although Tropical Storm Hanna is heading up the coast, it appears as though Hurricane Ike is the one to watch as it could be a major threat to the US on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

If you would like to add a Hurricane Ike sticker to your web site or blog you can copy and paste the code below for a large image:
<a href="http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane.html?zcode=z6286"><img src="http://hurricaneimg.weatherbug.com/ike_latest.gif"></a>

Or this code for a thumbnail Image:
<a href="http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes/hurricane.html?zcode=z6286"><img src="http://hurricaneimg.weatherbug.com/ike_latest_th.gif"></a>

Ike Still a Category 4 Monster, But Weakening Expected In the Short-Term

Ike continues to exhibit beautiful symmetry, a well-established outflow, and a well-defined eye on satellite imagery. The size of the eye has increased somewhat today, which is reflected in the decrease in maximum wind speeds to 135 mph. Keep in mind that the pressure and wind speeds are estimated based on the infrared satellite data. The first Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions are scheduled to fly early tomorrow morning, giving us exact measurements by mid-day Friday.

Water vapor imagery shows a moderate amount of dry air that Ike will encounter over the next 12 hours, so weakening to Category 3 status is possible overnight. Ike will also encounter some northwesterly shear from the large outflow from Hanna. Thus, a decrease in intensity to Category 3 at some point tomorrow as indicated by most models makes sense.

Surface high pressure is building to the northwest, in the wake of Hanna, and will cause Ike to steer more to the west-southwest, closer to the Turks and Caicos, as well as the southern Bahamas on Saturday into early Sunday. Since Hanna will be well clear of the region, Ike will likely start to pick up steam and approach Category 4 strength on Sunday.

After Sunday morning, computer models agree that Ike will begin to turn back toward the west-northwest, or even northwest on the backside of the surface high to the north. How quickly this turn takes place will hold the key as to who then gets affected down the road into early next week. A majority of the models take Ike towards southern Florida on Tuesday of next week. Intensity at this point would probably be strong Category 3, if not Category 4. A few models forecast the potential for re-emergence into the Gulf of Mexico, meaning a secondary landfall on Thursday or even Friday. Either way, the Southeast should brace itself for a major hurricane no later than Wednesday.

At 5 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Ike was centered about 500 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands at 23.6N, 58.2W. Movement was toward the west-northwest at 14 mph, and the estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb, or 27.91 inches.

The next complete technical discussion will be issued tomorrow at around 5 a.m. EDT.