Gustav Weakens to a Tropical Depression; NHC Issues Last Advisory

At 4 a.m. CDT, Gustav was located just west of Natchitoches, La., at 31.7N, 93.4W. Maximum sustained winds have dropped to near 35 mph, and movement was to the northwest at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure continues to rise as Gustav weakens, now up another 7 mb since 10 p.m., to 985 mb, or 29.09 inches.

Doppler radar imagery shows the center swirling up the I-49 corridor out of northwest Natchitoches Parish and into southern Red River and De Soto Parishes. The center will continue to track northwestward this morning, reaching the Louisiana-Texas border just west of Shreveport by early afternoon. The heaviest rains continue to fall to the east-northeast of the center where Doppler radar rainfall rates are estimated at just over an inch per hour in parts of Jackson, Bienville, Lincoln, and Claiborne Parishes in Louisiana, well as across far southeastern Arkansas and extreme western Mississippi. Much of northern Louisiana as well as southern and western Arkansas are all targeted to see perhaps as much as 8 inches of rain today. As a result, Flood and Flash Flood Watches have been issued by local National Weather Service offices.

Areas farther east, mainly north of New Orleans and into western Mississippi, will also be plagued by potential severe weather. Since Gustav made landfall yesterday, 17 tornadoes have been reported as far east as the Florida panhandle. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for extreme eastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi until 7 a.m. CDT. I would not be surprised to see the Watch area shift farther northwest into northern Louisiana and southeast Arkansas later in association with Gustav’s movement toward Texas.

Gustav is expected to bring upwards of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches to extreme northeast Texas, much of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and southeast Missouri as Gustav’s remnants slow even further and slowly turn northeast toward the mid-Mississippi Valley by the weekend.

Joe Bartosik