WeatherBug Gustav Technical Discussion 8pm:8/31 update

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have returned data indicating Gustav has strengthened rapidly and is a strong category 3 hurricane with winds to 115 mph.

Recon data from a flight crisscrossing through Gustav has found pressure has fallen to 952mb or 10mb in the last 6 hours. This rapid pressure drop indicates that Gustav is undergoing intensification. Although the NHC has increase the average sustained winds by only 5 mph at 8pm, it is possible that in the next several hours during this intensification cycle that the storm could become a category 4 hurricane once again.

Movement continues to be brisk at about 17 mph and direction continues to be at 320 degrees. With the storm continuing at this pace it continues to be more likely that it will make landfall earlier and slightly to the right of the going forecast track. A shift of even 10-15 miles off the forecasted landfall track will make a huge difference in if New Orleans spends time in the NE eye wall of Gustav after landfall.

Outer bands of Gustav are just off shore from the mouth of the Mississippi River at 8pm. Storm pushing toward New Orleans from the east have caused a tornado warning to be issued in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana. Conditions will slow deteriorate going forward for SE Louisiana. Worsening conditions will primarily begin to hit coastal Mississippi and Louisiana and the New Orleans metro area after midnight.

At 8pm, the center of Gustav was located at 26.9N, 87.7W and 260 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained wind estimates are 115 mph with gusts to 135 mph and a central pressure of 28.11” (952mb).

The next WeatherBug Gustav Technical Discussion will be sent at about 11pm Sunday.
- Mark Hoekzema, WeatherBug Chief Meteorologist

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