WeatherBug Gustav Technical Discussion - 5am: 8/31

Hurricane Warnings Issued For Northern Gulf Coast

Over the last 6 hours Gustav has lost its clearly defined eye and the most convection is on the west and southwest side of the system.

Now that Gustav has emerged over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, intensification should resume as it approaches the Gulf Loop Current. Gustav could become a category 4 hurricane later today or tonight.

Actual track positions of the center of Gustav continue to be right (or east) of the going forecast track. This has been consistent with the latest forecast track as of 8 p.m. There are a few outliers that steer the storm towards Texas quickly after almost nearing the Gulf Coast at Louisiana. This is partly to blame for a ridge axis over the Ohio Valley. The storm continues on a steady speed, which has been consistent over the day and is forecasted to continue. An upper level trough as seen on the Water Vapor is positioned across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a ridge over the SE that would keep the storm on a northwest journey.

All this put together does not bode well for the southeast Louisiana and southern Alabama coastlines and of course, New Orleans.

Late night forecast models diverge on a landfall solution. As mentioned above, while one track targets the Louisiana coast another aims Gustav towards Texas, but really never has a landfall with the system. Models also continue in agreement with a general slowing of Gustav after it nears the coast.

There will be rainfall potential of 6 – 12” of rain in Louisiana, southern Alabama and Eastern Texas with some areas potentially receiving 2 feet of rain over the next week.

At 5am, the center of Gustav was located at 24.2N, 85.0W, which places it 425 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained wind estimates have decreased to 125 mph and a central pressure of 28.29” (958mb).

Pleases refer to WeatherBug News for complete coverage of the storm - http://weather.weatherbug.com/hurricanes…
The next WeatherBug Gustav Technical Discussion will be sent at about 11am today.