It seems that at a juncture in history, where the leadership of the United States is such a high stakes issue, many people go cast a vote based on likability. It is not legislative policy that decides. It is not experience. The deciding factor for many is which person to welcome into the living room, through newscasts and presidential addresses, for the next four, and possibly eight, years.

In essence, it is with which candidate do you feel comfortable ‘having a beer’.

This factor is not to be dismissed if recent elections are any indication. President Bush has had a myriad of criticism. However, there is one factor that has been a strength for him. He may be characterized as a ‘hail fellow well met’. He has a southern charm. For example, he will welcome the reporters to his news conferences. This is in spite of the fact that indeed they have to be there to do their job. The President presents as ‘approachable’. He appears as one of the people - he is one of us. He fulfills the ‘having a beer’ criterion. Mr Gore and Mr Kerry did not fulfill that criterion as well.

The exit polls find it difficult to measure this likability factor. The polls focus on issues such as leadership, experience, policy, and so forth. It would be interesting if the exit polls measured the fact that a voter selected a candidate and did not like him/her. It would rarely happen. It would be unlikely that a voter would say ‘I voted for this person but it’s someone I truly dislike’.

Charm trumps substance. Presentation trumps merit. Impression trumps empirical analysis. The frightening thing is that the results of this forthcoming election may be more in the hands of the campaign advertisers than the policy makers. These advertisers are the professionals who try to influence what detergent you buy. Scary stuff…

Catherine Forsythe
Director of Operations
FlyingHamster