Vista - 20 Million Copies Sold In 30 Days - No Way!
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Our good friends in Redmond must be using the new math when they are boasting of a sales figure that just doesn’t make sense. I have read several articles about Microsofts claims of selling 20 million ‘licenses’ of Vista in 30 days. In fact I was so impressed that I tossed my XP laptop in the trash, and rushed right out to buy a Vista machine. Yeah, right!
First you have to understand how these numbers may have been calculated. Remember all the folks who bought computers from about the end of October 2006 that were issued upgrades to Vista? And that after the Vista launch, were shipped copies of Vista which some folks are still waiting for? Well if you count those as licenses issued during the first 30 days of the launch, that adds up to a lot of licenses. BUT, the time frame really extends backwards to about 4 months.
Next, we have to look at the licenses issued to the OEM’s for the machines that are licensed, but that are still sitting in warehouses or on store shelves. Because a license has been issued for a computer, is it a real ’sale’ until the system is actually purchased by a consumer who takes it home and activates the copy? I personally don’t think so.
Here is the best one that I like the best. Vista has sold 20 million copies in 30 days and it took 2 or 3 months, depending on who’s figures you believe, to sell 17 million copies of XP. OK. That doesn’t take into account one small little factor. 5 years ago when XP was released there were not as many computers as there are today. I don’t think anyone can fudge on this logic.
And here is the one figure that Microsoft has also not made public. Does the number of licenses also include the free copies that were given away free of charge to beta testers? I got a free copy. So did my good friend Denny. And they are licensed copies so they do qualify as part of the 20 million.
If Microsoft sells 20 millions copies a month of Windows Vista, than in approximately 11.3 months every computer in the world will be running Vista. This is Ron’s new math. 
Comments welcome.
PS I wonder if these numbers include those who bought and installed Vista, formatted their disks and went back to XP?
[tags]microsoft, vista, licenses, sales, [/tags]
13 Comments
Tim Hodkinson
March 29th, 2007
at 12:33pm
I would say Microsoft, or any company, uses the most generous method of measurement for presenting sales numbers. Let’s not forget that Microsoft is a company whose shares are publicly traded. So these sales “numbers” probably have as much to do with the stock market as they do with the software industry.
At what point do exaggerated sales figures become an outright lie?
Something much closer to the truth will come out when MS makes a quarterly report on earnings to shareholders and states the profits from Vista license sales.
An interesting remark made in an article from the Badvista Rss feed, said that computer manufacturers were dragging their feet in sending people the Vista upgrades they were promised when they bought Xp machines because they’re not quite sure what problems these new customers are going to have when they turn their Xp machines into Vista machines. Dell, and others, will then have to give support for these new Vista installs, and they’re not eager to start doing that anytime soon.
What I think will be interesting is the next set of sales figures from computer manufacturers. This will really show how popular Vista is, and also if customers are starting to get “Vista-shy”, which should be happening if Vista’s problems are genuine. I would think the majority of new Vista users are also new system purchasers considering the greater resource requirements of Vista and user’s reluctance to pay money for an OS on it’s own.
Ron Schenone
March 29th, 2007
at 1:26pm
Hi Tim,
I don’t think they are lying, just bending the truth. But as you stated, the quarterly report will reflect the truth. Maybe.
Ron
Shahzad Khan
March 29th, 2007
at 8:08pm
and oh not to mention, if thats how vista’s selling, I belive there wont be any pirates either
peace
-mE
Jake
March 30th, 2007
at 12:46pm
I have to say, I was impressed by the large number of Vista shipments. I don’t know how they pulled it off.
I don’t think they counted beta units — that would be ridiculous. Microsoft, I guess, has a knack for selling large numbers of terrible products.
After reading so much negativity in the blogosphere, I’ve been expecting them to fail.
I doubt they woulkd lie though. If they got caught, it would be too embarrassing. If they say 20 million, it can’t be far from that.
- Jake
Ron Schenone
March 30th, 2007
at 2:23pm
Shahzad,
No pirates! LOL
Heh Jake,
Like I said, I think they just counted all of the upgrades going back to October in the 30 day count.
Just a guess. Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.
Ron
Syaf The Geek
March 31st, 2007
at 1:27pm
I guess that’s their WOW factor but there’s no WOW at all.
Ron Schenone
March 31st, 2007
at 8:21pm
Hello Syaf The Greek,
Maybe they are saving the WOW for SP1 ! LOL
of our lives » Vista - 20 Million Copies Sold In 30 Days - No Way!
April 1st, 2007
at 7:13am
[...] Larry Larsen wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptVista has sold 20 million copies in 30 days and it took 2 or 3 months, depending on who’s figures you believe, to sell 17 million copies of XP. OK. That doesn’t take into account one small little factor. 5 years ago when XP was released … [...]
Shlfarrell
April 1st, 2007
at 3:09pm
I do not have Vista yet. I heard that it is a monster and takes a lot of memory to operate properly. Is that what you are seeing? Do you recommend it?
Ron Schenone
April 1st, 2007
at 3:18pm
Hello Shifarrell,
Vista does require at least 1G of memory, 2G is better.
I’d wait until SP1 comes out. By then MS should have some of the bugs fixed.
Jim
April 28th, 2007
at 10:39am
20 Million copies sold? My guess is that they are counting all the OEM licenses, sold and unsold.
I for one am not going to get Windows Vista and I’m the geek type that works at a large IT firm. I have no desire whatsoever to try Vista.
My neighbor was having issues with his laptop and one day walked it over to my house and unknown to me, it had Vista installed on it. The could summerize the operation system in two words, slow and clunky.
After my neighbor left, I went immediately to wash my hands with soap and water. No joke. I somehow felt contanimated.
I was pro Microsoft ever since DOS 3.2 days, but not anymore.
Ron Schenone
April 28th, 2007
at 1:44pm
Hi Jim,
I had to laugh when I read your comment - that was good.
MS released their 1st quarter profits which were huge as always, but failed to list how much of the revenue was from Vista.
Thanks for the comment, Ron
logic
November 29th, 2008
at 6:48am
man what about other countries who are in the tech age now unlike when xp came out. China and India… more than 1/2 the world’s population right there trying to get in on the action(not saying all of them bought a copy just that even if only 1% of the population bought a copy it still counts for a big number)